Franchise Futures: Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a decent, but not exciting, collection of talent; however, one issue that they’re going to have to address is that the team’s top arms are either ready or very close. The next wave of impact position players (Witt, Loftin, Lee, Isbel, possibly Pena) are likely to need a few years in the revamped minor leagues.

It seems to me that the Front Office will need to decide between:

Option 1: Roll with the young arms and continue to try to patch together a decent lineup with short-term signings like Carlos Santana. The hope here is that the pitching is good enough to carry the average offense, and that a handful of bats (Dozier, Merrifield, Santana) outperform their projections enough to win 85 games and challenge for a playoff spot.

Option 2: Trade away the players that you’re likely to lose in free agency (Duffy, Perez, Merrifield, Soler) for bats that can help in the next few years — Merrifield could probably fetch a top 50 bat; Dozier could fetch a top 100 bat; and the others would likely only return 45-types (platoon bats/relief arms, or high-risk/far-away prospects). I don’t LOVE this scenario, because you’re also counting on your young pitchers staying healthy while the young bats gradually break into the lineup.

Impact talent is the big missing piece. They need Witt to be a 3–4 WAR shortstop, and Erick Pena developing quickly would be a huge boon up the middle. Maybe it all clicks for Asa Lacey and he’s an ace.

Here’s how I see 2021 looking (with their current roster). If they were to add a couple of bats in the OF, move Whit back into the dirt, and bring in a pair of late-inning relievers, I could see them hovering around .500. The projections here for Dozier and Merrifield both seem conservative, and I could see both of them doubling those numbers. If that happens, and they patch a few more holes with bargain free agents, 85 wins and a playoff spot could be a realistic goal.